∃≠COVID19🦠: Modeling Transmission

Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Wu, JT; et al.vol 395. Issue 10225. Pages 689-697. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9. Published: FEB 29 2020.

human mobility,Tencent database

confirmed cases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Serial interval estimates, previous studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV).

susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered metapopulation model

basic reproductive number, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, resulting posterior mean and 95% credibile interval (CrI)

If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1-2 weeks.